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08/28/2010 - St. Catharines, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leading money winner Aaron Goldberg shot a four-under 66 to join Kane Hanson in the lead Saturday after the third round of the Canadian Tour Championship.
Hanson, the 36-hole leader, managed only an even-par 70 and was tied with Goldberg at 10-under 200 on the St. Catharines course.
They shared a one-shot lead over fellow American Andres Gonzalez, who fired a 63 to move into third place at nine-under 201.
Devin Carrey was the top Canadian through 54 holes after shooting a 71 to enter the final round in fourth place at eight-under 202.
Everyone is vying for a piece of the largest purse in Canadian Tour history.
Goldberg, of course, is also seeking his third win of the season. He captured two in a row -- the Players Cup and Jane Rogers Championship -- and has risen to the top of the tour's money list.
Hanson, who carried a one-shot lead into Saturday's round, is seeking his first career win.
Goldberg made an early run, collecting three birdies on his first seven holes before he was tripped up at No. 8, where he made his only bogey. He added two more birdies on the back nine and shot 33 on both sides of the course.
Hanson, meanwhile, went birdie-bogey on his first two holes and his day was less eventful the rest of the way. He made his only other birdie at No. 6 and later bogeyed the 16th hole.
NOTES: The tournament purse is $325,000, including a winner's share of $52,000...Including Carrey, there were six Canadian players among the top 15. The remaining nine were all Americans.
<< Dallas, Columbus battle to scoreless draw
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas extended its road unbeaten run to
10 Major League Soccer games, and its overall league unbeaten run to 12 games,
by earning a 0-0 draw at Columbus on Saturday afternoon at Crew Stadium.
The game,
<< Laird three clear at The Barclays
Paramus, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scotland's Martin Laird carded a six-under 65
in the third round Saturday to grab a three-stroke lead at The Barclays.
Laird, who won the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last
year, comp
<< Wie, Shin share lead at Canadian Women's Open
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michelle Wie shot an even-par 72 on Saturday
and was joined in the lead by Jiyai Shin after three rounds of the Canadian
Women's Open.
Shin carded a three-under 69, bouncing back from a pair of bogeys with thr
<< Blue Jays' Encarnacion lands on DL
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blue Jays placed Edwin Encarnacion on the
15-day disabled list after the third baseman sprained his left wrist during a
sixth-inning at-bat on Saturday.
Encarnacion grounded out in that frame and exit
Sevilla, Valencia win big in La Liga openers >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Abdoulay Konko and Joaquin Sanchez scored
twice for their respective clubs as the Spanish La Liga opened its 2010-11
campaign with three fixtures on Saturday.
Konko's two goals helped Sevilla top Leva
Browns DB Sorensen leaves game >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns defensive back Nick
Sorensen left Saturday's game with an undisclosed injury.
Sorensen was hurt in the second quarter when he was blocked by a pair of Lions
defenders on a kickoff.
Victorino, Blanton and bullpen get Phils past Padres >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shane Victorino provided a much-needed
offensive spark with two hits and two RBI for the Phillies, who defeated the
San Diego Padres, 3-1, in the second of three games at PETCO Park.
Victorino, who
Rangers put P Francisco on DL >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers placed closer Frank
Francisco on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a strained right
latissimus dorsi muscle.
The right-hander suffered the injury in Friday's game aga
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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