Mutuel field favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The mutuel field, undefeated Algorithms and Union Rags are listed as the three favorites for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager for the 2012 Run for the Roses.

The pool is comprised of 23 individual three-year-olds plus the mutuel field. Wagering for the Future Pool begins Friday at noon (et) and concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).

As has been the custom the mutuel field is the early favorite at 8-5. The mutuel field includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool.

Holy Bull Stakes winner Algorithms is the top individual three-year-old at 8-1. The colt upset 2011 champion two-year-old Hansen in the Holy Bull last month.

Union Rags is at 10-1. The colt was undefeated heading into last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He finished second, a head behind Hansen. Union Rags is expected to make his 2012 debut at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26.

Hansen is 12-1 in the opening odds.

"The mutuel field has been a solid favorite in every opening pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and, given the loss by two-year-old champion Hansen in his first start as a three-year-old, there is every reason to think the 'all others' bet will be a strong-to-heavy favorite in what appears to be a wide-open crop of Kentucky Derby candidates," said track handicapper Mike Battaglia. "The 'now' horse is Algorithms, who is unbeaten, comes from the Pletcher barn, has a strong pedigree and easily handled the reigning two-year- old champ in the Holy Bull. The speed figures assigned to that win were impressive, so you can expect a lot of bettors to move in his direction. But every pool has interesting Derby prospects at attractive odds, and we should remember that last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, did not even appear as an individual wagering interest until Pool 3. So much can happen on the road to the Kentucky Derby."

Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:

1. Algorithms 8-1

2. Alpha 20-1

3. Battle Hardened 30-1

4. Creative Cause 20-1

5. Discreet Dancer 15-1

6. Dullahan 15-1

7. El Padrino 20-1

8. Empire Way 50-1

9. Ever So Lucky 20-1

10. Fed Biz 20-1

11. Gemologist 20-1

12. Hansen 12-1

13. I'll Have Another 20-1

14. Junebugred 50-1

15. Liaison 20-1

16. Longview Drive 50-1

17. Midnight Transfer 50-1

18. Mr. Bowling 50-1

19. Out of Bounds 20-1

20. Rousing Sermon 30-1

21. Sabercat 30-1

22. Take Charge Indy 30-1

23. Union Rags 10-1

24. All Other 3YOs (field) 8-5

The remaining two Future Wagers will be held March 2-4 and March 30-April 1.

The 138th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.

Wpriceline Horseracing Betting News

<< Thigh injury sidelines Inter's Samuel
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan defender Walter Samuel could miss the next two weeks after picking up a thigh injury in Sunday's 4-0 defeat to Roma. The former Argentina international was replaced at halftime of the loss an

<< Providence picked to host 2013 AHL All-Star Classic
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The American Hockey League selected Providence, Rhode Island, as the host for the 2013 All-Star Classic on Wednesday. "The American Hockey League is excited to be returning to one of its fo

<< Delaware State will play Cincinnati in 2012
Dover, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Visits to the University of Cincinnati and the University of Delaware help highlight Delaware State's 2012 football schedule. The Hornets are coming off a 3-8 season in Kermit Blount's first year as head coach.

<< Rocchi to miss three weeks with thigh injury
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lazio striker Tommaso Rocchi is expected to miss the next three weeks due to a thigh injury. Rocchi sustained the problem in Sunday's 3-2 defeat at Genoa and will miss Serie A games with Cesena, Palerm

<< Traore out as Senegal coach
Dakar, Senegal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Senegal's football federation confirmed on Wednesday that coach Amara Traore has been fired following a disappointing showing by the team at the African Cup of Nations. Senegal entered the competitio

BC Lions ink Banks to extension >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The defending champion British Columbia Lions inked defensive back Korey Banks to a contract extension on Wednesday. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. "Over the past number of years, Korey has bee

Falcao tabbed as new Bahia boss >>
Bahia, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paulo Roberto Falcao was named the new manager of Bahia on Wednesday, replacing Joel Santana, who left the club for Flamengo. Falcao spent a short time at Internacional last season before being s

No problem: Houston lands 2013 NBA All-Star Game >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2013 All-Star Game will be held in Houston, the NBA officially revealed on Wednesday. The game itself will be played at the Toyota Center on Sunday, February 17 with All-Star festivities starting two da

Padres take a flyer on Jeff Suppan >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres on Wednesday signed veteran hurler Jeff Suppan to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Last season, the 37-year-old right-hander went 11-8 with a 4.7

Good weather means increases at Oaklawn >>
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not one day of racing has been missed at Oaklawn Park in 2012 allowing the track to increase daily purses. The track announced Wednesday that overnight purses are going up $5,000 a day starting this we

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.