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01/26/2012 - Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unlike 2011, NASCAR will not make any major alterations in its rules for the upcoming season.
Officials from the sanctioning body, including NASCAR chairman and chief executive officer Brian France and president Mike Helton, held a press conference Thursday to address the "state of the sport."
Last year, NASCAR revealed a host of format changes, including a revised points system for all three of its national touring series, as well as a new rule which prevented drivers from competing for a championship in more than one of the three series. Other rule modifications included two "wild card" positions for the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship format and a new qualifying procedure.
NASCAR made such drastic changes to help improve track attendance and television ratings, which had both slumped in recent years.
"We're very pleased with how all those changes played out," France said during his opening remarks.
The 2011 season in NASCAR's premier series -- now known as the Sprint Cup Series -- featured the closest battle for the championship. Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards ended the season in a points tie (2,403 each), but Stewart captured his third title by virtue of his five wins -- all of them in the Chase -- compared to only one for Edwards.
"The way to top that is to have three drivers or four going for the championship if that's possible," France said in regards to the upcoming season.
One significant change for 2012 is the electronic fuel injection systems, which are replacing carburetors in the Sprint Cup cars. Electronic fuel injection has been a project that NASCAR has worked on with both McLaren Electronic Systems and Freescale Semiconductor the last several years.
NASCAR also worked with Sprint Cup teams to test the technology this past season.
"We're pretty confident in what we've chosen; it's been tested pretty carefully - that we will be in good shape," France said. "If we're not, if there's some change, then we'll look at that. But we're pretty confident that we've got the right package on that."
France mentioned the electronic fuel injection systems could be used in the Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series in the future.
NASCAR is preparing for the debut of the new Sprint Cup cars next year. Earlier this week, Ford unveiled its 2013 Fusion model. The other three manufacturers -- Chevrolet, Dodge and Toyota -- are expected to unveil their models later this year. Private test sessions for the car are planned throughout this season.
"I think the optics of the 2013 car will be very significantly recognized and very popular, and the effort with NASCAR and all of the manufacturers collectively working on this together, the four manufacturers in a room with NASCAR and NASCAR saying we would like for you to help us design this race car in a way that you would like it, that was a bit of a surprise to them, for us to be that open with that process," Helton said.
NASCAR announced on Wednesday it is doing away with undisclosed fines. During the past couple of seasons, Sprint Cup drivers Denny Hamlin, Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman had been secretly fined for comments they made that were considered detrimental to the sport. NASCAR's policy in not publicly announcing fines had recently received criticism, mostly from fans.
"In terms of going public with it, we didn't have a real strong position on that," France said. "We feel like that's something people think is a good thing. We were happy to do it."
Officials further addressed the new rules package for restrictor-plate racing this year, beginning with the February 26 season-opening Daytona 500. The revised rules are intended to scale back on the two-car tandem style of racing that has been featured at Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway the past couple of seasons.
NASCAR is banning driver-to-driver radio communications while they are on the track for restrictor-plate races. However, team-to-team communications for these events will remain allowable.
"I think we have some confidence that the tandem racing as we saw the '11 [season] conclude with won't be a part of the Daytona 500," Helton said. "We're not going to write a rules package that prevents the drivers from racing close to each other. That's NASCAR racing the fans expect. So we think the Daytona 500 will be more in line with the fans expectations. You'll see more than likely cars push each other, but that was happening in 1959 and 1979."
After Sprint Cup teams tested earlier this month at Daytona, NASCAR made some modifications to the cars, particularly the restrictor plates and the front grilles, for the Daytona 500 and other Speedweeks events.
<< Chattanooga to kick off 2012 at South Florida
Chattanooga, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
football team will kick off its 2012 season at South Florida and play five
home games as part of an 11-game schedule announced Thursday.
The Sept. 1 season opener
<< France will play Iceland, Serbia before Euros
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - France will play friendlies against Iceland
and Serbia in May in preparation for the Euro 2012 tournament in Poland and
Ukraine.
France will play Iceland on May 27 and Serbia four days later. The French
<< Hertha signs Bastians, extends Lell's deal
Berlin, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hertha Berlin added defender Felix Bastians
from Freiburg and signed defender Christian Lell to a contract extension, with
both players inking contracts through the summer of 2016.
Bastians, 23, played for
<< Lorient signs defender Gassama from Lyon
Lorient, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lorient signed defender Lamine Gassama from
Lyon on Thursday on a 4 1/2-year deal.
Gassama, 22, made his debut for Lyon in 2008, and played 17 matches during his
stint with the seven-time Ligue 1 champions.
Pocono track founder Mattioli dies >>
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dr. Joseph Mattioli, the founder and chairman
of the board of Pocono Raceway, passed away on Thursday at the Lehigh Valley
Hospital Center in Pennsylvania, following a lengthy illness. He was 86.
Known as
Yanks sign P Kuroda >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees signed pitcher Hiroki
Kuroda to a one-year contract on Thursday.
Kuroda has spent his entire four years in the majors with the Dodgers and went
13-16 with a 3.07 earned run average ove
San Jose signs forward Guvenisik >>
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes signed forward Sercan
Guvenisik on Thursday, pending receipt of his P-1 visa.
Guvenisik, 31, comes to MLS from SC Preussen Muenster of the Bundesliga 3. He
scored 14 goals in 56 leagu
Indians place P Carmona on restricted list >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The pitcher formerly known as Fausto
Carmona was placed on Major League Baseball's restricted list by the Cleveland
Indians on Thursday following his arrest of double identity last week.
Carmona, wh
Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.
"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."
Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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